Pi Consensus Value – Hype and Wishful Thinking

The date is June 28, 2022 – Pi2Day – the expected big event by Pioneers throughout the world happened in the Pi Network ecosystem.

The whole Pi Network community was excited of the migration of account records to the Pi blockchain mainnet that eventually ushered in the transfer of Pi tokens to the respective wallet of eligible Pioneers. For the first time, those qualified have direct control of the mined tokens in their Pi wallet. With their own private key or passphrase.

So, what happen now to those Pi token consensus value?

In the past months prior to this event, there are lot of talks about Pi token consensus value.  But what really is a consensus value?

Consensus means general agreement. The Merriam-Webster dictionary defines it as the judgment arrived at by most of those concerned, and that it is a group solidarity in sentiment and belief.

But looking on ground reality, what is happening among various groups of Pioneers is everything, but not solidarity and common sentiment about Pi token value. What we are seeing are figures of different “consensus” values.

So based on this, Pi consensus value is the price of Pi token agreed upon by the Pi Network community, or sub-communities if we call it that way. If we define this on the basis of what is going, it is a value agreed upon by Pi token holders and users within a particular ecosystem, platform or online commercial environment for now.

But then, the truth is that Pi token has a value of zero dollar, euro or pound, as declared by the Pi Core Team (PCT).  That is if we based it on the Pi Network FAQ. Until now, there is no official pronouncement on this particular issue on Pi token valuation. And obviously for this reason, PCT distanced away from any talks of Pi token consensus value right at the start.

While various groups in different countries set their respective consensus values of 1 Pi token to be equal to $3.14, $100, $314 or $1,000, a group have even settled to a stupendous consensus value of $314,159. Hope they are not joking.

Some groups even encouraged vendors to join their respective platforms to bootstrap commercial peer-to-peer transactions once mainnet comes when Pioneers will have the Pi tokens in their wallets. Most of these platforms have their own respective Pi consensus value, so to speak.

Will it Work?

It depends. This will practically depend on how liquid the proponent’s communities are. Or, how complete and comprehensive are the services and commercial activities within their respective ecosystem.

Liquidity would mean they (those operating the platform or ecosystem including the vendors within it) have their own buffer fund more or less equivalent to the volume of transactions on their platforms or online stores allowing them to operate for longer period. And another equally important is that, as much as possible, all the needs – products, basic goods and services can be purchased within the particular ecosystem.

Because if not, then they will look for external transactions to convert their Pi tokens into other currencies – fiat or crypto. To be able to buy goods and services they need in their homes, or products they will sell in their business establishments, and other productive endeavors from the conventional market. Or buy equipments and other services they need to sustain operation of their firms, or their households.

Technically, commercial products and services procured and/or produced using fiat money has to be replenished using fiat money. If Pi will be used somewhere in the value chain, then eventually there has to be a way to exchange Pi into fiat money.

Consensus value will only work if those who agree with it in a particular platform can readily use, or hold on to their Pi until it can be used to purchased goods on a particular specific equivalent value. As the vendors also readily accept such consensus value as they sell their goods or services to a particular Pi token holder. While at times, absorbing losses when significant shortfall and disparity in token prices occur, on the digital and convential market conditions.

More so that we should not forget the fact that Pioneers throughout the world has different economic circumstances and financial needs. So, there are various compelling reasons for some to use and spend their Pi anytime they need it, at whatever equivalent value that they think acceptable to them. Possibly disregarding the Pi valuation agreed upon.

A deviation to the agreed specific equivalent value, whether on the side of the token holder, or the seller willing to accept Pi as payment, would imply there is no longer a consensus. And that’s when we can say that the consensus value, is not really a consensus after all.

Consensus Value Hype or Wishful Thinking

For some, it could just be a  hype to attract more people to Pi Network.

Others may think these figures are wishful thinking.  But mind you, some of those advocating it are very serious. To the extent that they are flooding social media platforms promoting it, using several hundreds of man-hours.

For anybody holding some Pi tokens, or even any other cryptocurrency, higher value would be an exciting news to hear. But what if such consensus value figure is very high enough to be unrealistic, under normal, or even in a highly bullish cryptocurrency market condition. So high that nobody will be willing to accept it as it is. Except of course for the proponents.

Let’s take for example the $314,159 consensus value of 1 Pi. Considering the 100 Billion maximum supply of Pi tokens, does the figure really makes sense? Of course it does not, if we look at it based on current reality, and even in a future perspective say, 10 years.

It is because if we multiply $314,159 with just the 20 Billion Pi tokens distributed during the pre-mainnet mining period, the sum would be equal to $6,283,180,000,000,000.  That amount is many times over the aggregate Global Wealth Value of  $418.3 trillion USD as of 2021 being reported by creditsuisse.com.

So, perhaps we can say that some of the “pop-of-the-mind” value being set as consensus value of Pi token just defies reality.

Is there a way for Consensus Value to work?

For those inclined and persistent to embrace it, the question would really be – Could there be a way for it to work?

The way I see it, one possible way that it will work more sustainably is having Pi token be used as the medium of exchange in a socio-economic enclave. Where a formal monetary policy is legally instituted for its use like what is being done with Bitcoin in El Salvador.

If a particular national government can legislate that Pi token can be used as a legal tender even in just a particular area on its geo-political jurisdiction, then that would be a great help to ensure that a realistic consensus value might work for the long haul.

In a free market society and with the unique economic circumstances of Pi users, consensus value will be just a hopeful expectation of some Pioneers wishing to gain the most benefits of their long held tokens.

If collectively they value their Pi enough that it will satisfy their hopes and dreams, then willing to firmly embrace and hold on to it at whatever circumstances until such desired value is achieve, then much sooner wishes can be a reality.

Mind you, I am just like other Pioneers who are hoping for the best. Best value of Pi token that is best for me.